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Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Can your smartwatch actually predict your race instances?


Have you ever ever been pleasantly shocked (or dismayed) by what time your watch thinks you’ll clock at your subsequent race? Smartwatches declare to foretell race efficiency, however how effectively do they actually ship? A current examine examined the Huawei Watch GT Runner, evaluating predicted and precise end instances throughout 5K, 10K and half-marathon distances. The outcomes had been spectacular, however with some caveats.

running watch

The examine: how they examined accuracy

The examine, printed in Frontiers in Sports activities and Energetic Dwelling, tracked 154 newbie runners over six weeks. Researchers gathered knowledge by having members full structured coaching runs whereas sporting the smartwatch. The system’s predicted race instances had been then in comparison with precise performances throughout 288 take a look at cases.

The findings confirmed a excessive correlation between the smartwatch’s predictions and real-world outcomes, with lower than a 3 per cent margin of error. The strongest accuracy was seen within the 10K distance, whereas predictions for the half-marathon tended to be barely much less exact.

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What this implies for runners

For newbie runners, smartwatches can provide a handy approach to gauge health and race readiness. Whereas not excellent, an accuracy charge exceeding 97 per cent means these units generally is a great tool for setting race objectives and planning coaching. Simply remember the fact that your watch is barely as good as your coaching. In case your current runs have been in all places, don’t anticipate a spot-on prediction.

woman looking at watch

The catch: not for everybody

The examine solely thought-about watch model, and solely checked out newbie runners, not elites. Moreover, GPS and coronary heart charge monitoring are stable, however your watch doesn’t know in the event you’re battling a headwind, tackling hills or simply having an off day. An excellent coach (or your individual race-day instincts) may nonetheless have the sting.

Takeaway for runners

Smartwatches are bettering at predicting race instances, however they’re not excellent. Deal with them as a useful information, not the ultimate phrase; constant coaching and race-day circumstances nonetheless matter greater than an algorithm. That stated, in order for you a stable estimate of your potential tempo, your watch isn’t a foul place to start out.



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