Having lived by the Nice Fastened-Gear Growth-Bust Cycle Of The Early twenty first Century, I’d prefer to say I emerged stronger in consequence, however sadly this isn’t true. If something the expertise has deeply traumatized me, as a result of I do know all too effectively that regardless of how excessive we could also be flying we are able to come crashing down once more at any second. That’s why as everybody else runs round fortunately graveling as if the great instances won’t ever finish I can’t assist feeling as if this entire factor has “bubble” written throughout it:
I requested the AI to generate a picture for “This Entire Gravel Factor Has Bubble Written All Over It” and that’s what I bought. Nice, gravel with bubbles in it. Is there even a tread sample for that? Fast, someone ask Jan Heine!
However sure, there are indicators that the gravel bubble is about to burst. For instance, tastemaker Ultraromance (broadly acknowledged because the Warren Buffet of Jorts) is now providing a bespoke mid-reach brake highway bike:
Hey, a few of us had been driving mid-reach highway bikes earlier than they had been cool:
However, clearly the medium-reach highway bike is poised to grow to be the brand new gravel bike.
However to actually know the place gravel stands that you must go the place the rubber meets the highway–or the gravel, or the bubble-infused gravel–and that’s Craigslist. See, the bike trade and its mouthpieces within the media inform you solely what they need you to consider, nevertheless it’s on Craigslist the place you get to see what’s actually occurring. That’s why I created the BSNYC GMI:
So what’s been occurring since then? With spring across the nook, are riders rising their gravel holdings, or are they divesting? Nicely, a easy seek for “gravel” on the New York Metropolis Craigslist is sort of revealing. For instance, it yields this Pinarello Dyodo:
Severely, Pinarello made an electrical gravel bike, and so they named it the “Dyodo?”
Huh, I had no concept that’s what “Raphus cucullatus” meant. If I needed to guess, I’d have thought it was Latin for “The Crotch of the Rapha:”
[Two Raphi cucullati side by side.]
Anyway, I needed to be taught extra concerning the Pinarello Dodo, so I discovered a evaluation:
I suppose they discovered it heavy:
As a Rivendell rider I’m aghast that anybody would take into account 28lbs hefty in any respect, not to mention too hefty to trip with no motor. Hey, right here’s an concept for Pinarello: what a couple of bike that weighs beneath 20lbs and has no motor in any respect? I guess that will be tremendous quick!
Any individual ought to look into that.
Anyway, in response to the evaluation the Dodo value $8,000 when it was new, and this one’s listed for $4,150. That’s almost a 50% haircut, and with driving season imminent no much less! And that’s not the one e-gravel bike on Craigslist, both:
Take into account a brand new Turbo Creo SL Comp Carbon EVO (I’m out of breath simply typing that) prices over $7,000:
Which will appear excessive, however have in mind it’s not solely a Turbo, but additionally an SL and an EVO! Specialised are actually going all-in on the car-inspired phrase salad naming conventions, aren’t they? Regardless, that is one other assisted bike provided at a steep low cost, so clearly the underside is falling out of the electro-gravel market.
However what concerning the different finish of the spectrum? How are metal gravel bikes with mechanical shifting going? Nicely right here’s a Velo Orange Go Hunter:
It was constructed by Bernie!
Apparently I’m alleged to know who that’s. In fact I do know who Velo Orange is, however in case you don’t they’re the Bizarro Soma:
And right here’s one other Go Hunter, constructed otherwise however equally priced:
When analyzing the market, it’s vital to contemplate why persons are promoting, and on this case the proprietor desires better tire clearance:
I can see that the vendor is on the fence, and if I had been his advisor I’d inform him to carry. Tires are getting too huge, and the approaching medium-reach brake development is a transparent indicator that the marketplace for huge tires is about to contract. Issues have been getting too huge for too lengthy, and I think the entire huge tire factor is quickly going to blow utterly off the rim and depart buyers lined in sealant, economically talking.
As for the gravel conversion market, the state of it’s at all times an vital indicator, and at present indicators are not good:
The vendor notes that “inquiries asking whether or not that is nonetheless obtainable will probably be ignored,” which implies he’s aggravated that he’s nonetheless bought it, which implies the market is clearly stagnant.
Additionally, is there anyplace on this planet the place an aluminum Trek is uncommon?
And talking of Treks…
…it’s “gravel bike prepared:”
Is there any bike that’s not gravel prepared at this level? Actually classic tobacco collaboration (tobacollabo?) bikes are:
See?
And so are classic automotollabo bikes:
See?
Gravel mania already and we’re barely into March. Get out when you nonetheless can!
