All over the place you look within the working world, plainly course data are falling.
In February 2025, the monitor and area world was taken by storm because the indoor mile world file fell twice in 5 days, and the indoor 3,000-meter and 5,000-meter world data had been additionally reset. This enhance in velocity on the prime of the sector has additionally been seen within the path working world, and course data throughout the ultra-distance spectrum are being damaged left and proper. Up to now yr, among the most prolific races noticed their course data fall: the Hardrock 100, Leadville 100 Mile, JFK 50 Mile, and Black Canyon 100k. Want I am going on?
However what’s driving path racing to turn into quicker on the entrance of the pack? Is that this enhance in velocity additionally mirrored in mid-pack runners? Is that this actually a leap into a brand new frontier, or have I simply been consuming an excessive amount of iRunFar media?
On this article, I flip to the information to discover how course occasions have progressed over time at each the entrance and the center of the sector. I give attention to a dataset comprising “aggressive” ultramarathons. My intention is to have a look at how among the hottest races have developed in aggressive nature over time to:
- Discover the shift in efficiency over time, and
- Study components that is likely to be contributing to efficiency will increase.
Historic knowledge is pulled from DUV Extremely Marathon Statistics.
On this article, I have a look at knowledge involving absolute end occasions. I wish to acknowledge that the working circumstances year-to-year are usually not at all times equal and that variables akin to temperature, precipitation, course adjustments, and course circumstances do impression occasions. I hope to have a look at a big sufficient dataset to visualise key tendencies over time.
Within the second half of this text, we look at among the attainable the reason why path runners are getting quicker.
The beginning of the 2025 Black Canyon 100k, a race the place each the ladies’s and males’s course data fell. Photograph: World Path Majors
Shifts in Efficiency on the High of the Discipline
Let’s begin with prime performances. I used to be glued to the display screen for this yr’s Black Canyon 100k, watching the dominant performances of Riley Brady and Seth Ruhling. With a aggressive area lining up in the beginning line and three Western States 100 Golden Tickets on the road in each the ladies’s and males’s races, it was set to be a quick race from the start. On the end, each course data toppled, with Brady going practically half-hour beneath the earlier ladies’s course file, and Ruhling breaking the boys’s by 5 minutes. [Editor’s Note: Riley Brady identifies as non-binary but competes in the women’s division.]
What has the development of those prime occasions on the Black Canyon 100k seemed like over time? To get a greater view of how efficiency has shifted over time, I plotted the highest 25 outcomes by yr and gender since 2014.
Black Canyon 100k High 25 Males’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending occasions of the highest 25 males on the Black Canyon 100k annually.
Black Canyon 100k High 25 Ladies’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending occasions of the highest 25 ladies on the Black Canyon 100k annually.
In these graphs, we are able to see the successful occasions steadily growing over time, however much more attention-grabbing is visualizing the condensing of the sector because the races turn into extra aggressive. For the boys’s area in 2014, there was over a five-hour hole between first and twenty fifth place, whereas in 2025 that hole was lower than two hours. The same change might be seen over time within the ladies’s area.
Taking a look at different races we observe an identical development:
Javelina 100 Mile High 25 Males’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending occasions of the highest 25 males on the Javelina 100 Mile annually.
Javelina 100 Mile High 25 Ladies’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending occasions of the highest 25 ladies on the Javelina 100 Mile annually.
CCC High 25 Males’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending occasions of the highest 25 males at CCC annually.
CCC High 25 Ladies’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending occasions of the highest 25 ladies at CCC annually.
Shifts in Efficiency within the Center of the Pack
Is it simply the highest of the sector that’s getting quicker, or is it everybody? We will see from the graphs above that the highest occasions are getting pushed quicker and the entrance of the sector condensed, however is it simply because a couple of extra people are gunning for glory on the most high-profile races?
On this subsequent part, we have a look at all the area of those races, to discover what the general middle-of-the-pack development has seemed like. Within the following graphs, we plot the median (center of the pack) end occasions over time, together with a match development line.
Javelina 100 Mile Median Performances by Yr
Chart with development line exhibiting the median ending time at Javelina 100 Mile annually.
Black Canyon 100k Median Performances by Yr
Chart with development line exhibiting the median ending time at Black Canyon 100k annually.
CCC Median Performances by Yr
Chart with development line exhibiting the median ending time at CCC annually.
These graphs present a way more muddied image. Some races seem to have middle-of-the-pack performances which might be steadily growing, whereas one is declining. These graphs are possible extra variable as they’re depending on all the area, which has grown to embody individuals who all have completely different objectives for competing.
I actually like the next graph of Javelina 100 Mile end occasions, that reveals the distribution of runners ending in sure time buckets. On the left we see the elite runners gunning for podium spots, a spike round 24 hours for folk attempting to go sub-24 hours, and one other spike proper earlier than the cutoff for these simply attempting to complete.
Chart exhibiting the distribution of ending occasions on the Javelina 100 Mile.
Folks have quite a lot of completely different objectives at ultramarathons, and that’s possible resulting in the flatter median end occasions throughout all the area. It’s attention-grabbing to notice the one race that requires qualification, CCC, has seen a fairly regular development in quicker end occasions. This may counsel that the center of the pack for extra seasoned racers is, the truth is, progressing.
Jennifer St. Amand, the ultimate official finisher of the 2023 Western States 100, who beat the cutoff by 21 seconds. Again from the entrance of the pack, a spread of runners are chasing their very own objectives with completely different motivations. Photograph: iRunFar/Sarah Brady
Potential Components Resulting in Shifts in Efficiency
On this subsequent part, we discover among the components which may be contributing to an enchancment in race occasions for the highest of the sector. We give attention to the highest performances as these have the clearest upward development over time. Most of the components mentioned could also be relevant to a wider vary of runners, relying on whether or not they’re using the wave of performance-enhancing components.
For those who’re in search of a clean-cut reply, this part isn’t for you. There are a selection of things which will contribute to data being damaged, and far of that is completely speculative at this level, and it’s moreover troublesome to parse out the person impression of every one. We talk about a couple of at a excessive degree after which dig into a couple of others which have some knowledge surrounding them.
1. Higher Know-how
Carbon-plated footwear are beginning to turn into a extra frequent sight at path working occasions, with small effectivity will increase having been discovered amongst runners in some path working terrain in some research. Extra correct coronary heart fee screens enable runners to trace their effort ranges and keep a relentless output over the course of lengthy occasions.
The carbon-plated Nike Ultrafly is certainly one of many footwear in the marketplace to supply the steadiness and velocity to go quick on trails. Photograph: iRunFar/Eszter Horanyi
2. Fueling
Whereas that is extremely speculative at this level, it’s attainable that the not too long ago popularized high-carbohydrate fueling approach is permitting some athletes to take care of blood glucose ranges for longer durations, main to higher restoration throughout coaching and sustained efforts over longer-distance races.
3. Coaching Principle
As extra knowledge turns into out there round optimized coaching approaches, elite athletes could possibly push to new ranges by means of optimizing velocity and endurance.
4. Elevated Competitors
The sector of runners lining up for prime races is changing into more and more aggressive. With Golden Tickets to the Western States 100 {and professional} contracts on the road, increasingly prime athletes are racing essentially the most prolific occasions. By taking a look at UTMB Index scores amongst prime finishers, we are able to see how this aggressive panorama has shifted over time.
Beneath is a chart of UTMB Index scores from the Black Canyon 100k males’s area in 2022 versus 2025. Rankings are taken from the tip of the prior season, so their efficiency within the occasion doesn’t bias the rankings.
Efficiency indices of prime males’s finishers of the 2022 Black Canyon 100k.
Efficiency indices of prime males’s finishers of the 2025 Black Canyon 100k.
Within the males’s area, the highest 25 finishers in 2022 had a median index of 782, whereas in 2025 the typical index was over 20 factors increased at 804.
Wanting on the ladies’s area, we see an excellent larger shift. In 2022, the typical UTMB Index of the highest ladies finishers was 662, versus a median index of 689 in 2025, a 27-point distinction.
Efficiency indices of prime ladies’s finishers of the 2022 Black Canyon 100k.
Efficiency indices of prime ladies’s finishers of the 2025 Black Canyon 100k.
I acknowledge that one’s UTMB Index doesn’t outline a runner neither is the UTMB Index a surefire strategy to rank athletes and their performances, however it’s a typically useful indication to grasp the extent of runners coming into a race and the make-up of the highest of the sector. These more and more aggressive fields demand that runners push from the beginning and take some dangers in pursuit of the rostrum.
Conclusion
The highest of the sector has been pushed upward over the past a number of years, and we are going to possible see this development proceed on account of quite a lot of components. New expertise, information, and competitors within the ultrarunning world could have all contributed to this efficiency enhance on the prime of the sector, and these components might be useful for all athletes who profit from the altering panorama. Wherever you might be in your path working journey, there’s something to be discovered from the components main to hurry enhancements within the sport.
We hope this text gave you some perception into how the course data at prime extremely occasions are being pushed upward, and a view of how performances throughout the sector have shifted over time. There are a selection of things resulting in efficiency will increase, impacting completely different runners in numerous methods.
Regardless of the case, it’s clear that the game is getting quicker. Hop aboard the ship.
Hayden Hawks (U.S.) lets out a yell in celebration on his strategy to win the 2024 CCC.
Name for Feedback
- What different components do you assume are resulting in this shift in efficiency?
- What adjustments have you ever noticed in how individuals method ultramarathons?
- Are your race occasions bettering? Why/why not?
