Ultrarunning and path operating have skilled explosive progress over the previous a number of a long time. In the US alone, this proliferation has attracted new audiences and other people from each nook of the nation and past. This sample is mirrored globally as nicely.
The ultrarunning and path operating neighborhood continues to be comparatively small, and also you see related faces at main occasions. With the commercialization of sure occasions and qualifiers attracting important consideration and promoting out shortly, some races have ballooned from native occasions to nationwide and worldwide spectacles.
When wanting by way of knowledge out there on ultramarathon statistics and previous articles, many present progress graphs up and to the best. It’s evident that ultrarunning is rising, however what does that basically imply? How is it rising, and the place is it rising?
As somebody who has been touring the US over the previous 12 months and attending path races in several states, I’m considering higher understanding the group that these occasions appeal to. At a given path race, you might be certain to strike up a dialog with somebody on the expo or as you shuffle down the path. The laid-back nature of those occasions lends itself to dialog, and also you be taught quite a bit — perhaps a little bit an excessive amount of — about some people.
It’s all the time fascinating to me the place an individual has traveled from for a specific occasion. Seldom is it the identical location, and the geographic variance lends itself to studying about different cities and cities scattered throughout the nation.
On this article, I goal to visualise the geographic attain of ultrarunning and path operating in the US and the way they unify grime surfers from across the nation and past.
Let’s begin by one of the vital high-profile ultras within the U.S., Javelina 100 Mile, and the way it has grown over time to draw misfits from across the nation. Right here, we visualize that geographic progress:
The expansion is mesmerizing. From a small-time occasion that used to achieve a handful of people, it has grown right into a nationwide occasion that brings in individuals from most corners of the nation and past. I goal to discover this idea additional on this article: What does a geographic lens reveal about ultrarunning within the U.S.?
Strategies and Notes
Notes on the info:
- Geographic constraint: Races within the U.S.
- Time constraint: Races from 2000 to 2023.
- Race dimension constraint: Races with a minimum of 10 finishers.
- Participant constraint: Races solely have particular person knowledge for finishers, not all individuals.
These constraints can be on all knowledge referenced within the article. For mapping location knowledge, I used the Google Maps Geocoding API to retrieve latitude and longitude coordinates. All runner knowledge comes from the DUV Ultramarathon Statistics Database.
A few final notes earlier than we dig in:
- As we are going to see, the races featured on this article characterize an general pattern within the improvement of U.S. ultrarunning and path operating.
- We need to make clear on this article that we’re analyzing geographic progress in U.S. ultrarunning and path operating solely. To do that, we use knowledge on the variety of occasions, their geographic places, and the evolution of the geographies from which individuals hail. There are different methods by which the expansion of those sports activities can and have been measured, reminiscent of the general variety of individuals throughout the occasions, that can provide us different views on progress.
Total Ultramarathon Development in the US
This text examines the expansion of ultrarunning within the U.S. by way of a geographical lens. Utilizing the geocoded race and participant knowledge, we will pinpoint and map the place ultrarunning exercise happens across the nation. I’ll begin by wanting on the progress of ultrarunning from a excessive degree after which dive into some race-specific visualizations.
Ultrarunning is on the rise. Many individuals have in all probability seen a plot much like the one beneath. This graph reveals the variety of extremely occasions within the U.S. over time. Since 2000, the variety of races in our dataset has grown from 233 to 2033, a 772% improve.
Variety of ultramarathons within the U.S. over time.
Here’s what that progress has regarded like throughout the nation. Ultrarunning has gone from a reasonably inconspicuous sport to being discovered throughout all states.
Drilling down into the extremely scene a bit extra, it’s fascinating to see how the entry-level extremely distance, 50 kilometers, has grown in comparison with essentially the most famend extremely distance, 100 miles. The 50k has all the time been the most well-liked of the extremely distances with the bottom barrier to entry, and, apart from some brutal 50ks just like the Speedgoat 50k, extra manageable to complete.
Since 2000, the variety of 50k races in our dataset has grown from 89 to 760, a 753% improve.
This progress in 50k occasions is sort of much like the expansion in all occasions, and we will see that a variety of 50k occasions now exists throughout the county.
Analyzing 100-mile occasions over time, we see a progress from 19 occasions to 160, a 742% improve. The proportion improve within the 100-mile distance aligns with 50ks, however the absolute variety of 100-mile races stays considerably much less.
Taking a look at a geographic distribution of 100-mile occasions, we will see they’re fairly spaced out. In 2000, there was seldom multiple per state, and in 2023, whereas extra widespread, they’re nonetheless far more spaced out than the 50k graph.
Right here is an animation of how 100-mile races have unfold over time:
Participant Journey to Varied Ultramarathons in the US
Ultras have grown over time with extra choices for shorter and longer distances. If you wish to discover a race of a specific sort comparatively near the place you reside, this has develop into extra possible. Some exceptions exist, reminiscent of when you stay in a comparatively ultra-dead zone. (Sorry, North Dakota.) Sure distances, such because the 50k, have extra choices to select from, whereas much less frequent occasions like 100 milers will make you search a bit more durable. It makes intuitive sense that the extra excessive or particular an occasion is, the extra probably it’s you’ll need to journey additional to compete in it.
For instance, let’s take a look at the Cocodona 250 Mile. It’s the solely 250-mile race within the U.S. within the DUV Ultramarathon Statistics dataset and one of some 200-plus-mile races nationwide. Having grown to nationwide prominence previously few years, persons are keen to journey from throughout the nation to run from Black Canyon Metropolis to Flagstaff, Arizona.
Pulling location knowledge for finishers on the occasion permits us to visualise journey to the 2023 Cocodona 250 Mile. As you possibly can see, individuals journey from many elements of the nation, with 35 states and provinces represented and a median journey distance of over 900 miles.
The situation displays that entered by the participant when signing up for a selected occasion.
Enthusiastic about the Cocodona 250 Mile made me inquisitive about what will increase one’s propensity to journey lengthy distances to occasions. As a result of data-intensive nature of geocaching each finisher’s location, I selected a choose handful of occasions to look at in additional element. To look at developments by distance, I carried out a small evaluation utilizing the highest 10 hottest 50k races and 100-mile races within the dataset whereas excluding UTMB World Sequence races, as they didn’t embody participant location data.
The 2 metrics I targeted on have been same-state % — the % of individuals whose location was in the identical state because the race, and common journey distance — the typical distance in miles from a participant’s location to the occasion.
These metrics for 2023 race knowledge reveal some fascinating developments. On common, 50k races had a same-state proportion of 66.5%, whereas 100-mile races had a a lot decrease same-state proportion of 34.5%. The typical journey distance to 50k races was 266 miles in comparison with that of 589 miles for 100-mile races. These two metrics are almost double for the 100-mile versus 50k, displaying a willingness of individuals to journey longer distances for longer-distance occasions.
Here’s a visualization of one of many extra native 50k occasions, the Manner Too Cool 50k in Cool, California.
As you possibly can see, there isn’t a lot variation in the place individuals journey from 12 months to 12 months. It’s a predominantly California occasion, with 80 to 90% of individuals from throughout the state.
Then again, let’s take a look at one of many extra in style 100-mile occasions, the Javelina 100 Mile, close to Fountain Hills, Arizona.
The Javelina 100 Mile began out as an occasion with extra geographical attain because of the truth that 100-mile occasions have better attain. Over time, the expansion throughout the nation has been far more pronounced, with an growing quantity of individuals touring from throughout many states — and internationally — to attend the race.
Journey developments like this may be seen throughout the 100-mile distance. Let’s take a look at a pair extra examples.
These three 100-mile occasions have attracted an more and more wide selection of oldsters nationwide. All three occasions are Western States 100 qualifiers and among the many hottest races at their distance. Over time, because the curiosity within the 100-mile distance has grown, these occasions have grown together with it, spreading their attain to extra states and provinces. The 2023 race view reveals races with important geographic attain, with all occasions promoting out that 12 months. Will these races proceed to develop geographically within the years to return?
Trying on the Western States 100, we see a 100-mile race that has persistently been in style nationwide. Since 2003, the Western States 100 has persistently attracted individuals from greater than 40 states and provinces, touring a median distance of over 900 miles. These numbers have barely elevated over time because the race continues to realize prominence on the worldwide stage, however it’s onerous for it to develop into far more in style than it already is.
Ultramarathon Participant Propensity to Journey
Extremely-distance occasions have grown throughout the board in recent times. Shorter distance occasions, such because the 50k, and longer distance occasions, like 100-mile races, have each skilled this progress. Longer distance occasions stay extra scarce and geographically unfold out. This geographic dispersal and certain different components lead to individuals being keen to journey additional distances to those extra distinctive occasions.
I’m nonetheless finalizing my definition of participant propensity to journey (PPT), however it could probably embody the next components:
- Uniqueness of race: If a race distance is extra distinctive, individuals will journey additional to race that distance.
- Qualifying races: The emergence of qualifying races for prestigious races makes these useful in their very own proper.
- Location attraction: Ultras are sometimes held in a number of the nation’s most lovely locations and are a superb excuse to take an energetic trip.
- On-line presence: Social media and livestreams of the motion because it takes place construct hype round occasions, bringing in additional people the next 12 months.
Ultrarunning’s progress throughout the U.S. over time is fascinating to have a look at, and I’m positive it’s going to proceed to be within the years to return. Through the use of a geographic lens to look at extremely progress over time, I hope I’ve offered a singular perspective on the game’s progress.
Name for Feedback
- What conjures up you to run sure occasions?
- What makes you keen to journey additional to a race?
- What different occasions would you wish to see analyzed? (We’ll have a look into three extra nominees.)
